Premier League: Villa Out for Three on the Trot

Aston Villa vs Manchester City

It’s the game of the weekend in the Premier League as far as I’m concerned.

When they met in the corresponding meeting last term, Villa were on the crest of a wave, and City were on the crest of a slump from which they never recovered.

Fast forward 10 months, and City are showing signs of a resurgence, while Villa have had a wobble but have produced glimpses they can bounce back too. That makes their encounter at Villa Park on Sunday afternoon all the more fascinating as Villa aim for three on the trot – Unai Emery’s men have defeated City at home in both the past two seasons.

 

Talking Points

As far as Premier League 2025 highlights are concerned, there is only one place, or should I say man, to start with. That is a certain Norwegian goal king who has scored 11 of City’s 17 top-flight goals so far this term.

Indeed, red-hot Erling Haaland will be bidding to score in a sixth successive Premier League away game at Villa Park – a feat only Sergio Aguero has ever managed for the club.

Following their August blips against Brighton and Spurs, City are now unbeaten in nine across all tournaments – winning seven and drawing two of those contests – while keeping three clean sheets in their last three triumphs.

In the Premier League alone, City’s 39 points won since the start of April are more than any other team in the division, while a total of 12 top-flight clean sheets since February’s 5-1 humiliation at the hands of Arsenal is also unrivalled.

Villa had also turned a corner until their Europa League reverse at Go Ahead Eagles on Thursday night. Still, that is a result they can recover from and, putting that aside, they were enjoying a five-game winning run and six-game unbeaten sequence beforehand.

Spurs were their most recent victims, a fine 2-1 win in North London last Sunday means Emery’s men are now just 90 minutes away from matching an 89-year-old record – only one side has ever started an English top-flight season with a five-game winless run before prevailing in their next four – Preston North End in 1936.

City won at Villarreal on Tuesday night, but the withdrawal of midfielder Nico Gonzalez with a foot problem must be a concern for manager Pep Guardiola, given that his “metronome” Rodri is already missing with a thigh injury. He is the only major doubt for the contest, alongside defender Abdukodir Khusanov (ankle), who is definitely out.

For the home side, Emery will be boosted by the return of experienced left-back Lucas Digne after the Frenchman was ineligible in Europe, and he will also be expected to hand recalls to the starting XI to the likes of Morgan Rogers (a player who is improving with each passing week), John McGinn, and Boubacar Kamara – all used substitutes in Thursday’s game. Youri Tielemans is expected to spend another couple of weeks on the sidelines with a problematic calf.

 

History

A traditional English football match-up, City have 82 victories overall compared to 59 Villa successes and 42 draws.

You have to go back to April 2007, a year before the Sheikh Mansour takeover, to the last time Villa won at the Etihad Stadium in the top flight – a 2-0 triumph, courtesy of goals from John Carew and Shaun Maloney.

They did win 4-2 on City soil in 2012 in a League Cup third round tie, a game won in extra-time with Agbonlahor and Charles N’Zogbia claiming the crucial goals.

Fifteen successive home league wins for City in this fixture include a 2-1 triumph last term – a game in April which proved pivotal in securing Champions League football for them that term and ensuring Villa missed out by the narrowest of margins.

94 minutes were on the clock when Matheus Nunes grabbed the winner in a 2-1 home win – all this after Bernardo Silva and on-loan Marcus Rashford (penalty) traded goals in the first 18 minutes.

Villa have won the last two on their own turf, though, including 2-1 just before Christmas when Duran and former City youth product Morgan Rogers scored the goals before Phil Foden pulled one back in stoppage time.

Their most famous meeting this century was on the final day of the 2021-22 season; a quite brilliant triumph as City scored three times in six second-half minutes to overcome a 2-0 deficit and clinch the Premier League title.

The inaugural clash was in Division One in October 1899 at Villa Park, which the home side won 2-1, courtesy of goals from John Devey and Fred Wheldon (penalty).

 

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Premier League 2025 betting odds back City 1X2 @ 1.84 and Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.09, which is my *** tip. That is not because I don’t fancy Villa, though. In fact, at either 1X2 @ 3.72 or Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 2.36, I think they represent very good value.

So does the draw @ 3.47 or a re-run of the corresponding meeting last December with Correct Score 2-1 paying out @ 13.50. Total Goal 2-3 @ 2.03 and 4-6 @ 2.92 tempted me too.

Yet I just feel City will edge it because they’ve had an extra 48 hours to prepare following Villa’s Europa League exertions on Thursday night.

   

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