Premier League: Stakes are High for Champions League-Chasing Duo

Newcastle United vs Chelsea

As far as the race for the Champions League “gold mine” is concerned, this Premier League head-to-head could well be crucial. To put into context, Newcastle United and Chelsea (in fourth and fifth respectively) cannot be separated by points or even goal difference with only the fact Newcastle have scored a few more goals than their opponents this weekend meaning they are above them in the standings.

That the top five will qualify for Europe’s top tier next term is a bonus for both these clubs but neither can afford a slip-up with both Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa on their heels.

 

Talking Points

While this SBOTOP writer feels a draw would not be a disastrous result for either team on Sunday, you can be sure both clubs will go full-out for the victory that will keep their destiny in their own hands.

Premier League 2025 highlights at this stage of the season are a bonus; the points are all that matter. That was evident last Sunday as both teams fought to the bitter end.

On the South coast, Sweden striker Alexander Isak netted an 89^th-minute penalty to earn a 1-1 draw at Brighton. As a result, he has now scored the most goals by a Newcastle player in a Premier League season since club legend Alan Shearer also hit 23 in 2001-02. They are finding form at just the right time and have won six and drawn one of their past eight league outings.

After the Tynesiders’ run of 20 wins in their past 27 matches, manager Eddie Howe has confounded those who questioned his position last autumn. And to think he only secured the job after, reportedly, Rafael Benítez and then Unai Emery rejected it.

The race for the Champions League is certainly on a knife edge, and that was confirmed again a few hours later when Cole Palmer’s first goal since January, deep in stoppage time, sealed a 3-1 home win for Chelsea over Liverpool.

Earlier in the season, I asked whether they were ready to take the next step and concluded that, with no European football to occupy them, it should be an ideal time for the Tynesiders to launch a challenge for, at least, a top four spot.

The fact they and Chelsea have now been given an opportunity where fifth spot is enough, is not one they can afford to relinquish.

 

History

Traditionally, this had been a very closely matched clash – that was until 20 years ago when the Roman Abramovich era rolled into west London.

Chelsea spent bigger than anyone and went in a direction which Newcastle could only dream about, until they were taken over in late 2021 that is.

Overall, Chelsea have 81 victories to Newcastle’s 57 triumphs with a further 40 draws. All three meetings last season went the way of the home team.

At Stamford Bridge, they edged out the Geordies in a five-goal thriller as Nicolas Jackson, Palmer and Mykhailo Mudryk scored the goals. Isak and Jacob Murphy replied for Eddie Howe’s men.

On Tyneside, it was more one way as Newcastle ran out 4-1 winners when Isak, Jamaal Lascelles, Joelinton, and Anthony Gordon were the goal-getters. Raheem Sterling was on target for the visitors.

Chelsea also won with home advantage in the League Cup fifth round last term.

They triumphed in a penalty shoot-out after a 1-1 draw which Mudryk forced with a last-minute equaliser at Stamford Bridge to cancel out Callum Wilson’s opener.

This season it has been one win apiece. Chelsea edged the Premier League contest in October with goals from Jackson and Palmer, either side of an Isak equaliser.

Three days later, Newcastle were 2-0 winners in a League Cup fourth round tie with Isak again on target. The Geordies, of course, went on to win the cup and end their long trophy drought.

The very first meeting between these sides came in Division One in September 1907 when Ronald Orr scored the only goal of the contest in favour of the home side at St James’ Park.

They met again in west London nine days later when Chelsea turned the tables, courtesy of Jimmy Windridge and Billy Bridgeman goals.

 

Betting Tip

The Premier League 2025 betting odds lean towards Newcastle with home advantage, and so do I.

Chelsea may well have been in the position to rest players in their Europa Conference saunter on Thursday night, but a Sunday mid-day kick-off in the Northeast remains a quick turnaround.

With the hosts priced 1X2 @ 2.16 and Asian Handicap -0.50, with the same odds, and Chelsea 1X2 @ 2.89 and Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 2.42 respectively, there are attractive bets to consider every way you look.

The 1X2 draw @ 3.42 has caught my eye, but I am going to opt for total goal 2-3 @ 2.14, and I think the home side will get two of them to win the game.

   

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