Premier League: Newcastle’s Final Hurdle is the Sticky Toffees

Newcastle United vs Everton

Of all the fixtures on the final day of the 2024-25 Premier League season, Newcastle United vs Everton is up there as one of the most intriguing, as a whole lot is riding on this match for the Magpies. 

As Carabao Cup winners, the Geordies have already secured a place in the Europa Conference League. But the club, their fans, the manager, and players want more than that, having already tasted Champions League football. The top five places in this year’s Premier League will qualify for Europe’s flagship competition, and Newcastle are currently, with one game to play, in the frame.    

Eddie Howe’s team are in fourth place but level on points with the two teams breathing down their necks. Sixth-placed Aston Villa are away to Manchester United on Sunday and Chelsea, if fifth, take on Nottingham Forest in seventh. So, put simply, a win will take Newcastle to the Champions League, but anything less will leave them vulnerable. 

And David Moyes’ Everton would not be top of your list if you were looking for a comfortable game on the final day. After a poor first half of the campaign, the Toffees have rallied under the wily Scot and are up in 13^th place and that’s where they will finish. But Everton rarely need an incentive to spoil anyone else’s fun.    

The Magpies come into the game on the back of a 1-0 loss to Arsenal last Sunday, while Everton beat Southampton 2-0 to make it back-to-back wins, and Howe will be determined to turn that tide on Tyneside on Sunday.

The pre-match Premier League 2025 betting odds say he will get his wish, so let’s take a closer look at the two teams and make a call.    

 

Talking Points

Newcastle hoping for Isak return

Second place was up for grabs when Newcastle visited Arsenal last week, but it was the Gunners who came out on top thanks to a Declan Rice screamer. The Magpies gave it a good go in a competitive clash, edging the shot counts by 14 to 12 and five to four on target, but they just lacked that cutting edge.  

Star striker Alexander Isak was missing from the game and, with 27 goals this season and 23 in the league, the 25-year-old Swede was a big miss. He scored Newcastle’s leveller in a 1-1 draw with Brighton recently. But, in the aftermath of the Magpies’ win over Chelsea, he reported a groin strain and sat out the clash with Arsenal.

Howe is hopeful that Isak might make this final test, saying: “For sure there’s one left in him. We’d love him to be fit and available for this game. He has to be fit to give his best though. He has to be free in his movement because he’s that kind of player, he’s electric at his best.”

Newcastle have only failed to score in two home games this season and they have multiple threats, including the direct running Harvey Barnes, who has nine goals, and wing wizard Jacob Murphy, who has made 11 assists. And, in Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes, the Magpies have two classy midfielders who were both on target in the 2-0 win over Chelsea. This group will take some stopping on Sunday.     

 

Everton’s patched up defence

The Toffees have been tough to beat under Moyes, and they come into this match three unbeaten, with wins over the Saints and Fulham, and a draw with Ipswich Town. But they will arrive in Newcastle with some key defenders missing, not least their dominant center-back James Tarkowski, while both Jarrad Branthwaite and Seamus Coleman suffered knocks in the win over Southampton and will face late checks.

According to the Premier League 2025 updates, we could see the experienced pair of Michael Keane and Ashley Young slotting in at center-back and right-back in a makeshift back four which will face some serious pressure. 

When they do break out of defense, the Toffees will look for winger Dwight McNeil and striker Iliman Ndiaye, who has nine goals for the campaign and scored both in the 2-0 win over Southampton.  

 

History

With 24 wins to 23 the Toffees have the slightest edge in the head-to-heads, but I’m expecting a leveller this weekend.

Both teams have won three, drawn one, and lost two of the last six games, but Everton have failed to win on their last four visits to St. James Park, and they meet a team which has won their last five games at home.  

 

Betting Tip

Newcastle are at SBOTOP odds of 1.31 to win with Everton at 6.56 and the draw at 4.78, and I really can’t see anything other than a comfortable home win once the first goal goes in.

The Toffees can be sticky, but the Magpies have everything to play for. And with a multiple threats, I’m pretty sure they’ll be celebrating again on Sunday night.

   

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