La Liga: Home Win Against Rayo Could Give Atleti Some Hope

Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Atletico Madrid are unlikely to win any trophies this season, so keeping their Champions League spot is their main priority in the final six matchdays of the 2024-25 campaign. Los Rojiblancos are third in the La Liga standings with 63 points, which is 13 points adrift of top-seeded Barcelona and at least six points ahead of outside the top four.

​Diego Simeone’s men saw their unbeaten streak end at the hands of Las Palmas last weekend, since they conceded a stoppage-time goal from Javier Munoz. Look for them to try to bounce back when they host Rayo Vallecano at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano this Thursday evening.

Rayo Vallecano are targeting a Europa Conference League berth next season. Los Franjirrojos are 10th in the Spanish top-flight standings with 41 points, only three points adrift of seventh-seeded Mallorca. However, they are winless in their last three La Liga games. 

 

Talking Points

Atletico Madrid have been solid at home

Atletico Madrid will rue their missed opportunity to tack on more points after losing narrowly to Las Palmas last week, but they will fancy their chances of taking three points this week since they boast a solid home record this season. Los Rojiblancos have 11 wins, four draws, and just one loss in their 16 La Liga home matches this season. 

Los Rojiblancos’ 2024-25 campaign quickly disintegrated when they lost to Real Madrid in the Champions League Round of 16 and Barcelona in the Copa del Rey semi-finals. However, playing fewer games may be a blessing in disguise since head coach Diego Simeone doesn’t have any injuries to deal with. 

They should have a fully fit squad for Thursday’s home fixture, though Simeone could make some rotations. Rodrigo De Paul and Antoine Griezmann could be reinserted into the starting XI to rest Koke and Alexander Sorloth to give the team a new look, joining Jan Oblak, Julian Alvarez, Giuliano Simeone, Pablo Barrios, Conor Gallagher, Robin Le Normand, Javi Galan, Jose Maria Gimenez, and Marcos Llorente.

Alvarez is Los Rojiblancos’ main threat up front. He leads the team with 14 league goals and two assists. The Argentine striker is in fine form, as he has scored three goals in his last three league appearances.

 

Fitness concerns for Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano head coach Inigo Perez is expected to miss several key players ahead of Thursday’s clash against Atletico Madrid. Abdul Mumin (knee) and Joni Montiel (quad) are nursing injuries, and Sergio Camello (foot) is unlikely to be ready for the trip to the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, though he is close to returning on the pitch.

Los Franjirrojos will depend on Jorge de Frutos, Pedro Diaz, Randy Nteka, and Alvaro Garcia, who combine for 13 league goals and eight assists, to score goals this Thursday against Los Rojiblancos. Pathe Ciss is another threat in the final third, as the Senegalese midfielder has four league goals this year. Isi Palazon will be their first man off the bench, and the veteran winger has three league goals and three assists.

 

History

Atletico Madrid and Rayo Vallecano shared the spoils in a 1-1 draw during their reverse fixture last September at the Estadio de Vallecas. Isi Palazon drew first blood for Los Franjirrojos in the first half, but Conor Gallagher scored the equaliser for Los Rojiblancos 10 minutes before the hour mark.

Rayo Vallecano are winless in their last 15 La Liga matches against Atletico Madrid (D3, L12) since a 2-1 result under Paco Jemez in February 2013 – their longest current winless run against any Spanish top-flight opponent.

Atletico Madrid notched their biggest away win in any competitive fixture against Rayo Vallecano, running out 7-0 winners at the Estadio de Vallecas last August 2023.

 

Betting Tip

The La Liga 2025 odds expect the hosts to breeze past their visitors this Thursday night. Atletico Madrid are 1.49 favourites to win, whereas Rayo Vallecano are 6.00 underdogs, and a draw is at 3.78 in the 1X2 market.

Besides our recommended bet, SBOTOP bettors can also go for a relatively high-scoring affair since both teams can produce new La Liga 2025 highlights, making alternatives like Over 2.00 at 1.56, Over 2.25 at 1.84, Over 2.50 at 2.12, and Total Goal 2-3 at 1.98 worth considering. Moreover, a Correct Score of 1-1 – the result of the reverse fixture – could yield a solid 7.50 payday. A Correct Score of 2-1 in favour of Atletico Madrid has a slightly higher offer at 8.00 your bet.

   

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