Club World Cup: Atletico’s Slim Hopes Hang by a Thread

Atletico Madrid vs Botafogo

Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid are in the last chance saloon at the Club World Cup when they head to the Rose Bowl on Monday, where Renato Paiva’s Botafogo will stand in Los Rojiblancos’ way as they arrive in California.   

With two wins from two games, the Brazilians are nearly through to the knockout stage, top of Group B on six points, thanks to victories over Seattle Sounders and European champions PSG, the standout among the early Club World Cup 2025 results last week.

Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid got off to the worst possible start with a 4-0 shellacking at the hands of Luis Enrique’s PSG before recovering to beat Seattle. But, if the Ligue 1 champions beat the Americans in their final group game, then Atleti will need to beat Botafogo by three clear goals to progress, and that is a tall task.

 

Talking Points

Griezmann set for Atleti return

A 3-1 win over Seattle Sounders repaired some of the damage from Atletico’s opening match defeat. To face European Champions PSG was hardly the opener Simeone would have chosen for his men, but a four-goal defeat could well prove to be very costly.

Midfielders Pablo Barrios, with two goals, and Axel Witzel, with one, were on the mark to beat the MLS side, with Barrios firing in off the crossbar with just 11 minutes on the clock. Los Rojiblancos have now scored three or more goals in six of their last 10 games, and they’ll need to do it again on Monday if they are to stay in the hunt for a knockout place.

The manager is unlikely to make wholesale changes, but there could be a return for veteran playmaker Antoine Griezmann in a front two alongside Argentine Julian Alvarez, with target man Alexander Sorloth a candidate to step aside.

At 34 years of age, the Frenchman has plenty to offer, and Griezmann has scored 37 goals in his second stint with Atleti, returning to the club in 2022. He’s a match-winner, often as an assist maker, and Botafogo will need to keep a close eye on him should he start.

At the other end of the pitch, Clement Lenglet is back from suspension for a red card he received in the loss to PSG, but Simeone is likely to stick with the center-back pairing of Jose Gimenez and Robin Le Normand.   

Atletico booked their place in the 2025/26 Champions League in relative comfort, and they will use this competition as preparation for the coming campaign, but their stay in the USA looks like it may be cut short.  

 

Botafogo put their faith in Jesus

The Club World Cup 2025 betting odds picked out PSG as a potential winner, but the stats from Botafogo’s win over the Parisiens are quite telling, as the Brazilians had just four shots. But all four were on target, while the Parisiens had 16 shots but only tested the keeper twice. Luis Enrique was very complimentary of Botafogo’s defence, saying they defended better than Arsenal, Real Madrid, and Inter Milan. But the Brazilians also have a star up front who may be destined for greater things.    

Igor Jesus, who has scored once in four internationals for Brazil, bagged the only goal of the game against PSG, 10 minutes before the halftime break. The 24-year-old saw his shot deflected past Gianluigi Donnarumma, and then the Brazilians brilliantly shut out the French attack, keeping the dangerous Khvicha Kvaratskhelia quiet. Premier League club Nottingham Forest are reported to be tracking Jesus, who also scored as Botafogo put two goals past Seattle in a 2-1 win in their opener, Jair Cunha adding the other.     

 

History

This is the first time these two teams have met, but they are both powerhouses in their domestic leagues. Los Rojiblancos are 11-times La Liga champions, last in 2021, and 10- time winners of the Copa del Rey. Meanwhile, the Lone Star are three-time Brazilian champions, the most recent triumph coming in 2024.    

In terms of recent form, with five wins from six, the Brazilians have been in slightly better shape than Atleti, who have won four from their last six outings.   

 

Betting Tip

Los Rojiblancos are at SBOTOP odds of 1.71 to pick up three points in California, the draw is priced at 3.19, and Botafogo are at 4.04.

Botafogo are available at 1.95 with that + 0.75 advantage, and 1-0 to Madrid, at odds of 5.99, is the most likely scoreline. But that probably won’t be enough for the Spaniards.

   

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