Champions League: Real Madrid Need a Bernabeu Remontada

Real Madrid vs Arsenal

Real Madrid are on the verge of an early Champions League exit. After conceding three goals and scoring none in reply against Arsenal in the first leg at the Emirates Stadium last week, the odds are stacked against Carlo Ancelotti’s men when they host the Gunners at the Bernabeu for the second leg on Wednesday.

Los Blancos are coming off a heated 1-0 win against Alaves in La Liga last weekend to give them some confidence ahead of Wednesday. Also, their history of comebacks in the Champions League should keep Mikel Arteta’s men on their toes.

Arsenal are fresh from a 1-1 draw against Brentford in the Premier League last Sunday. Because they’re unlikely to win the English top-flight again, the Gunners will likely turn their focus on the Champions League.

Will Arsenal seal the deal, or will we see another magical comeback from Real Madrid? Read down below for today’s SBOTOP preview.

 

Talking Points

Fresher legs for key Real Madrid players

Carlo Ancelotti rotated his squad against Alaves in preparation for this match to avoid any new injuries. Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior came off the bench, while David Alaba, Luka Modric, and Endrick were among those who received a night off.

Kylian Mbappe received a straight red card in the 38th minute for his studs-up challenge on Antonio Blanco. Fortunately for the Frenchman, his red card is not applicable in Europe, though he’ll miss a handful of games in La Liga for his actions. Mbappe will likely join Vinicius Junior in the final third against Arsenal, with Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham providing support. 

Eduardo Camavinga will miss the second leg for his red card in the reverse fixture. Aurelien Tchouameni is a straight swap for Camavinga in the middle after he served his suspension in the first leg, and he’ll link up with Fede Valverde in the middle of the park.

In other team news, Eder Militao, Dani Carvajal, Andriy Lunin, and Ferland Mendy will remain on the sidelines. David Alaba could replace Fran Garcia in the starting left-back spot.

 

Arsenal dodged a bullet

Arsenal fans collectively gasped when Gabriel Martinelli was on the receiving end of a crunching tackle from Christian Norgaard last Saturday, in which the Brazilian winger claimed he “could’ve broken his leg.” Fortunately for Arsenal, Martinelli didn’t leave the game, and he should be ready to go against Real Madrid.

Like Real Madrid, the Gunners’ main priority was to avoid new injuries. However, Jorginho and Thomas Partey emerged as fresh doubts after they sustained knocks in the second half. Ben White is also doubtful for the second leg after hurting himself during training. Gabriel Jesus (knee), Gabriel Magalhaes (hamstring), Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee), and Kai Havertz (knee) aren’t expected to play on Wednesday night.

Jurrien Timber could reclaim his spot in the starting XI after coming off the bench against Brentford, and Myles Lewis-Skelly, Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, and Mikel Merino would likely start anew to help Arsenal clinch their semi-final berth. 

 

History

It has been 19 years since Thierry Henry guided the Gunners to a 1-0 win at the Bernabeu. Arsenal remain undefeated against Real Madrid in European competition (W2, D1) and haven’t conceded a goal in their three previous meetings. The Gunners could become the first team to keep four consecutive clean sheets against Los Blancos in the Champions League this week.

Real Madrid’s defeat at the Emirates Stadium was their fifth first-leg loss of a knockout stage tie in the Champions League by at least three goals. The last time they mounted a successful comeback off this was against Derby County in the Round of 16 in 1975-76, winning 6-5 on aggregate after a 1-4 defeat in the first leg.

 

Betting Tip

The Champions League 2025 odds back the hosts to win at home this midweek. Real Madrid are 1.69 favourites, whereas Arsenal are 4.15 underdogs, and a draw is at 3.73 in the 1X2 market. Despite this, Los Blancos will likely come up short of making it to the next round.

Real Madrid need to outscore Arsenal by four goals to complete the comeback, but Mikel Arteta would likely tell his boys to dial it back on Wednesday. Besides our recommended bet above, we don’t expect too many Champions League 2025 highlights from the second leg, making bets like Total Goal 2-3 at 2.14, Under 3.25 at 1.74, Under 3.00 at 1.96, and Under 2.75 at 2.21 viable. Moreover, a Correct Score of 4-0 in favour of Real Madrid is a long shot at 29.00.

   

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