Champions League: All Madrid-Showdown not for the Faint-Hearted

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

For those of a nervous disposition, may I suggest you look away now.

For no Champions League last-16 tie this week will have more ‘needle’ (and possibly an element of the ‘dark arts’) than this one.

That is not to say there won’t be good quality football for there are world class stars on both sides.

It’s just that this is a repeat of the 2014 and 2016 finals and, just as pertinently, a city derby between two rivals who would love nothing more than to gain bragging rights in their quest to be crowned European champions.

Of course, Real already are at the top of the tree and are very much European royalty.

With the sides also going toe-to-toe domestically and separated by just two points at the top of La Liga, I think it’s fair to say we are all set for two legs of Champions League 2025 highlights.

 

Talking Points 

In truth, this SBOTOP writer believes this contest is fitting for a final – as it has been twice before in the past 11 years.

Both teams warmed up for the encounter with contrasting results.

On Saturday teatime, Real suffered a blow as former midfield star Isco netted a second half penalty to earn Real Betis a 2-1 victory against the club where he won the Champions League five times.

A few hours later, Atletico moved to the La Liga summit with a hard fought win over in-form Athletic Bilbao.

Julian Alvarez netted the only goal of the contest and they rode their luck too when Bilbao’s Benat Prados headed against the post and Inaki Williams crashed the rebound off the underside of the crossbar.

Club captain Koke and veteran defender Cesar Azpilicueta will both miss out for Atletico through injury, for the first leg at least, while the versatile Federico Valverde is a doubt for the hosts, who are also without the influential midfielder Jude Bellingham who is serving a one match suspension.

Since Diego Simeone arrived as Atletico boss in late December 2011, Los Rojiblancos have been a genuine threat to the Real-Barca duopoly.

But to knock Real out of the competition they crave most of all, and have dominated more than anyone in the modern era, would be quite a scalp.

 

History

Historically, Real have the distinct edge as you would expect.

This includes the 2014 and 2016 Champions League Finals.

Last season in the league Atletico recorded a 3-1 home win.

On that occasion, a poor refereeing performance detracted somewhat from the contest but should not take away from Atletico’s showing, led by a Alvaro Morata double and an Antoine Griezmann header to seal a 3-1 victory.

Real then got the better of their city rivals in Saudi Arabia in a thrilling Supercopa de Espana semi-final.

There were eight goals and many talking points as Real emerged 5-3 winners after extra-time.

The game had everything including a record-breaking Griezmann wonder goal and the sight of Jan Oblak chasing back from the Real Madrid half in a vain attempt to catch runaway Brahim Diaz who netted the final goal of the game.

Ultimately, Griezmann’s goal – his 174th goal for the club, one more than Luis Aragones who had held the record as the club’s top scorer since 1974 – was a consolation.

He gained some revenge though with the decisive third in a 4-2 success around a week later when Atletico knocked their rivals out of the Copa del Rey in another exciting tie.

The league contest at the Bernabeu in February last year ended 1-1 when Diaz’s opener was cancelled out by a stoppage time Marcos Llorente header.

Both league meetings this season have also ended 1-1.

It took a last gasp Angel Correa equaliser to rescue a point for hosts Atletico in September after Eder Militao had put the champs in front.

It was also 1-1 at the Bernabeu last month when Kylian Mbappe cancelled out a Alvarez penalty.

 

Betting Tip 

The Champions League betting odds back the Spanish and European champions with Real available 1X2 @ 1.89 compared to Atletico 1X2 @ 3.74.

With Asian Handicap odds, how about -0.75 Real @ 2.14 or Atletico +0.50 @ 1.77.

The draw has caught my eye @ 3.29, as has what would be a fourth successive 1-1 draw which is on offer @ 6.40 with Correct Score.

Goalless draws don’t happen too often between these sides but the games can be incredibly tight which is why Total Goal 0-1 will appeal to many of you @ 3.08. On saying that, Total Goal 2-3 @ 1.98 and 4-6 @ 3.38 are attractive too.

I think Real are going to edge this by the odd goal and I think they will lead at the break too..

   

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