La Liga: Valencia’s Fight-back rests on the Visit of Bilbao

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao

Carlos Corberan’s Valencia welcome Athletic Bilbao on Sunday when only a win will do to keep Los Ches’ European dreams alive.

The notoriously hostile Mestalla Stadium will be a cauldron of fire for the visit of the Basque giants and the passionate home fans will do all they can to roar their team on to a famous victory. La Liga: Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao has a curious feel to it; the hosts have risen from obscurity to the fringe of the European chase while the visitors, serial high- performers, don’t have a whole lot to play for…other than pride.   

Ernesto Valverde’s Athletic Club are in fourth place and with their Champions League spot guaranteed for the 2025/26 season, though they can still finish third, with Atletico Madrid just three points ahead. Los Ches, started the week in tenth place in the Primera Division table, sitting only two points behind Rayo Vallecano in eighth, and that’s the spot which guarantees Europa Conference League football, but a 1-0 defeat to Deportivo Alaves in midweek put a dent in their Euro hopes. It was a night of frustration for Carlos Corbaran’s Valencia who had chances to win and they remain just three points behind eighth. So the league table could have been so different coming into this game.

Meanwhile, Bilbao beat Alaves last week and then a 2-0 win away to Getafe in midweek sealed their top five spot.    

 

Talking Points

The Corberan effect  

When Carlos Corberan arrived in Valencia in December he turned out to be the best Christmas present Los Ches could have hoped for. Valencia were in a relegation scrap at the time but five months later they have an outside chance of a European place. In the last month alone Valencia picked up four wins and two draws before the shock defeat to Alaves in midweek, and that included a 2-1 win over Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid. The club’s unbeaten run of ten games stretched back to a loss to Atletico Madrid at the end of February.

A former goalkeeper, the 42 year old Corberan has had an eye-catching career, making his name when he took unfashionable Huddersfield Town to the 2022 Championship Play-off final, which they lost narrowly to Nottingham Forest. After a stint at Olimpiacos, Corberan returned to England with West Bromwich Albion, where the Baggies earned a reputation for being very difficult to beat. Since his departure from West Bromwich,  Corbaran has worked miracles in Valencia where he has a win percentage of 50%. He has a fluidity in his coaching style and mindset and expects his team to have the same, switching from a 4-3-3 to a 5-3-2 mid game and he employs a high pressing game when he sees the opportunity to turn over possession.

Valencia need a win on Sunday and Hugo Duro with 11 goals, and Diego Lopez with eight goals and four assists will both aim to dominate the Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao highlights. If they do Los Ches’ European dreams will stay alive until the very last week… and not so long ago that would have been unthinkable.  

 

Williams brothers in doubt

Athletic Club picked up the win they needed against Getafe on Thursday to confirm their top five place, and they did it without the Williams brothers Nico, and his older sibling Inaki, who have been out with a groin strain and a hamstring pull respectively. They will both be assessed before Sunday and, while Valverde would like one or both of them back he won’t take any risks at this stage of the season, and Unai Gomez and Alex Berenguer are ready to start again if needed, while top scorer Oihan Sancet will hope to add to his 15 goals.  

Two losses to Manchester United in the Europa League and one to Real Madrid in La Liga have taken the gloss off an excellent campaign. Bilbao would have hoped to make the Europa League final in their home stadium but they will have to watch the Red Devils take on Tottenham Hotspur instead. And there may be more bad news for Bilbao fans, with the 22-year-old Nico Williams reported to be house hunting in North London with a potential move to Arsenal on the cards.   

 

History

With 27 wins to 20 Los Ches have edged this relationship over the last 30 years or so, and while Bilbao won this season’s encounter in the Basque 1-0, the Mestalla meeting last year ended in a 1-0 win for the Valencians.

Valencia have three wins, two draws and one defeat from their last six games, while Bilbao have three wins, one draw and two defeats.   

 

Betting Tip

This is a game which can go any way with Los Ches priced by SBOTOP at 2.82, the draw at 2.95 with Athletic Club at 2.28; and while the Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao betting odds slightly favour an away win, I’m going the other way and expect the hosts to throw everything at their visitors, who don’t have such a big incentive.

   

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